| RolStoppable said: I agree, the PS4 won't break that 20m barrier for a single calendar year. The system's surrounding variables match up with those of many previous winning systems (the competition is beaten, third parties have put their full weight behind the console), so a peak in year 2-3 followed by a soft decline is the most probable sales trajectory. Beyond year 3 for such a system, about the only things that can lead to an uptick in sales are a revision (the PS4 already got it in 2016) or a new IP that becomes a breakout hit. If we break down PS4 sales by region, 2016 was already a decline from 2015 outside of Japan which was the only region where PS4 sales were up year over year. At this point the curve is pointing downwards in most of the world. |
That's actually not true. According to Famitsu, the PS4 was up YOY by ~590K sales. Media Create has it up YOY by ~450K sales with a week to go. In the US, the PS4 was down YOY by ~630K as of November. Assuming that the PS4 exhibited a similar YOY decrease in December as November, the PS4 would be down YOY by ~1.08 million for 2016. That is significantly larger than the YOY increase from either Famistu or Media Create and then, you have to consider the extra 100K from the YOY WW increase.
