It will certainly be up YOY, Third Parties underperformed in 2016 and the only holiday exclusive was Last Guardian, which isn't exactly a system seller.
I don't think it will reach 20m though. 18-19m is my guess for now, 2017 is going to be the peak year for ps4.
2017 - 19m (72.4m total)
2018 - 16m (88.4m total)
2019 - 10m (98.4m total) (PS5 launch November 2019)
2020 - 4.5m (102.9m total)
2021 - 2m (104.9m total)







