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Sony will probably fall short of their estimated FY2016 shipment numbers (20million for the year, 60million lifetime). Assuming 1.5mil PS4s on shelves/in warehouses we'd have 54.9million shipped as of January 1st. Sony would have to ship 5.1mil PS4s in Q1 2017 for them to reach their goal, which would be a 121.74% YoY increase.