fleischr said: I predict about 300 150 million paid downloads lifetime - that includes the eventual Android release. About 40 25 million paid downloads the first month. |
It's not quite been a month but we've got figures now. http://www.vgchartz.com/article/266955/report-super-mario-run-tops-90m-downloads-3-have-purchased-full-game/
90M free downloads, 3 Million Sales. Even your revised first month figure won't be anywhere near. It's performing well your prediction was just very bloated.