Pavolink said:
You are ignoring it because you don't understand audiences. You don't understand evergreen titles.
Zelda: Launch. Because - hype. Nothing comes close in terms of hype and they need hype to sell consoles.
3D Mario: Holiday. Because: It is the next big franchise in the hype list.
Pokemon: Summer. Because: Pokemon audience is not going to buy a new console just for a third version. This is more like an incentive for the existing userbase. |
No, I am ignoring it because you have offered absolutely no proof to support your argument. I mean, two of these titles aren't even announced yet, so we don't even have any consumer interest data to go on. It's all gut feelings and assertions. These things have their place in marketing (and in this discussion), but they are too easily colored by personal biases and emotions. Cold hard numbers are far more relevant. You feel that a third Pokemon won't drive Switch sales as much as Zelda or Mario, but I know that no mainline Pokemon title has ever sold less than 6 million, and that many "third entries" have sold more than 7 million, which puts them in the same league as the best selling Zelda titles and ahead of many Mario games. Yes, I feel that this being the first Pokemon game on an HD home console will be a huge selling point, but I find the six million minimum number, coupled with how huge Pokemon has become in the wake of GO, to be more compelling.
Personally, out of the three titles, I think Mario sits on top in terms of potential guarunteed sales. 3D Mario games have had a higher ceiling and floor than Zelda titles, looking at their sales numbers. Pokemon comes in second because, while I think it has potential for huge sales, third versions have typically sold about 7 million, which puts it below several 3D Mario titles. It depends on how big and long lasting the new Pokemon craze is, how enticing console play is to current, lapsed, and potential Pokemon players, and as you have pointed out, whether hardcore Pokemon players will be less willing to shell out money for another console for a third version. We can only speculate on these things, since it's all pretty unprecedented as far as Pokemon goes. So while I feel it has the potential to sell more than Mario, past sales would indicate 6 and 8 million for this one. Zelda sits at the bottom, because even the highest selling Zelda game ever, Twilight Princess, only sold 7 million units on the Wii. It's launch sales in Japan were middling (14,000, Miyamoto expressed disappointment over it) to boot. 7 million is well below what 3D Mario's best seller, and as I've pointed out before, typical for a third Pokemon game. I'm sure Zelda fans are hyped for it, but the franchise has never quite matched the widespread appeal of Mario or Pokemon. Of course, Breath of the Wild is a very different Zelda game, so that could change here, but at the moment there isn't really any evidence that Zelda can surpass Mario or a third Pokemon in hype or sales. That it's not even Switch exclusive, unlike Mario, certainly doesn't help it, as many of the games hardcore fans don't even need to buy a Switch to play it. Of course, this didn't stop Twilight Princess Wii from becoming the best selling Zelda release in franchise history, but the Gamecube version DID still crack a million.
In any case, I think I might be done here. Not much else I can really say against your argument, and there's not much else I can get out of it if you don't start throwing proof at me. There's only so much I can say when your reply boils down to "this is what will happen because this is what I think will happen". But still, fun discussion. Thanks!
