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haxxiy on 29 December 2016
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Lucas-Rio said:
haxxiy said:

Nintendo consoles tend to drop like a rock on sales once their successors are out. The DS had sold a whooping 143 million before the 3DS launched, some 22 million every year, and it sold a mere 12m after that - a mere ~7.5% of its lifetime sales. I can't see the 3DS selling 8 million after its successor launches when it sold per year about half of what the DS used to do. Maybe it will end up just below or even above 70 million, but it's even more likely it ends 5-6m short of the goal.

Apples and Orange.

The 3DS price dropped and was close to the DS price less than one year after.

The 3DS was fully compatible with the DS while the Switch can't read 3DS or DS games.

The 3DS was fully the successor of the DS while the Switch isn't, it's an hybrid and is more replacing the Wii U.

Compare it to the Game Boy Advance, then. It's likely the best selling Nintendo console after the release of a new generation, and the DS wasn't marketed as its sucessor until it became clear it was.

The GBA was selling for less than $100 when the DS released, was less than four full years on the market, and had a new model coming out a year later. Still, it sold less than 20% of its total sales came after the DS released (15.74m out of 81.48m).

Granted, that was about 15 million (which would put the 3DS way above 70 million if it sold that much), but look at the GBA sales in the year right before the DS released - over 15 million, versus less than 7 million for the 3DS this year.

All numbers come from Nintendo's own press releases.