Predict: How many paid downloads will get Super Mario Run get?

[Barkley]

fleischr said:

Barkley said:

I don't take issue with 1 billion downloads, I take issue with you saying a $10 game will get 300 million purchases.

Minecraft is the 2nd best selling paid mobile game of all time and has a little over 30 million purchases at $7. Super Mario Run won't do close to 300 Million, Tetris is the only game to beat that nothing else comes even REMOTELY close.

Angry birds paid attach rate has hovered between 15-50% paid downloads depending on the release.

Source: https://aytm.com/blog/research-junction/angry-birds-addiction/#sthash.0qgYwXI8.dpbs - A bit old, but proves something of my point.

Your source is taken from a sample size of 500 people... that's not evidence of anything. The only information we have is the original game sold 12 million after a year on the market. Let me just post this again.

Best Selling Paid Mobile Games

Tetris - 425 Million   (was priced at $0.99)
Minecraft - 30 Million
Angry Birds - 12 Million
Sonic the Hedgehog - 8 Million
Fruit Ninja - 6 Million
Doodle Jump - 5 Million
Final Fantasy IV: The After Years - 3 Million
Plauge Inc - 2 Million

The chance of Super Mario Run exceeding 300 million sales is practically non-existant.