Predict: How many paid downloads will get Super Mario Run get?

[fleischr]

Barkley said:

fleischr said:

It's not crazy - it's just the scale of what the mobile market really is. All the big smartphone games easily coast by 1 billion downloads. Given the name recognition of the IP and how heavily Apple themselves are promoting it, it'll cross into that strasphere a lot more easily than you might imagine.

I don't take issue with 1 billion downloads, I take issue with you saying a $10 game will get 300 million purchases.

Minecraft is the 2nd best selling paid mobile game of all time and has a little over 30 million purchases at $7. Super Mario Run won't do close to 300 Million, Tetris is the only game to beat that nothing else comes even REMOTELY close.

Angry birds paid attach rate has hovered between 15-50% paid downloads depending on the release. And various installments of that series to this point have flown past 1 billion downloads fairly easily.

Source: https://aytm.com/blog/research-junction/angry-birds-addiction/#sthash.0qgYwXI8.dpbs - A bit old, but proves something of my point.