bigtakilla on 12 December 2016
| spemanig said: I'm just going to repost this here with a few tweaks because the last thread was closed, and I like to make controversial predictions based on nothing: --- I think that, as a platform, it'll blow up on a similar scale as the Wii and the DS. Combined. I also think it'll debut at $250 if the rumors are to be believed. If this is the case, then I think that the Switch will be symbolic of a much bigger paradigm shift where Nintendo elevates itself next to Apple and Disney as one of the most powerful companies in the world. This is Nintendo's "The Little Mermaid," and it will symbolize the start of a Nintendo Renaissance (which involves way more than just dedicated gaming). This cannot be stressed enough, but the mainstream audience are not going to expect PS4/PS4 Pro-level performance from the Switch because of it's form factor. In fact, they'll be supremely impressed because the Switch will undoubtably be the most sophisticated piece of portable technology for years. It's going to look like a technical marvel because of what it'll do in such a small form factor, and that will resonate with a LOT of people. And it IS well powerful enough to get current gen multiplats, which is all that matters because it's value proposition shining depends on them. All that will matter is if it will play most of the AAA blockbuster games untethered to your TV. If the next GTA, for example, is out on the Switch, it's over, because GTA on the Switch will be a far more valuable proposition than a prettier game that is limited to your TV. Switch symbolized freedom and flexibility of play, and people seriously underestimate how valuable that will end up being. Switch, as a piece of technology, is the most mass market product I've seen since the PS2. It's that kind of device. That's why I keep saying it needs normal apps. This thing can effortlessly replace the tablet, because it can do what most tablets can't and won't try to do, which is serious dedicated gaming. They won't get the support that Nintendo will, which makes Switch instantly more valuable if all else becomes equal. If it gets a robust App Store with Netflix, Facebook, Twitter, Youtube, Google Chrome, Kindle, etc, it will make all of those tablet devices virtually obsolete. Apple will always have the best App Store, but for a luxury device instead of a necessity like with smart phones or computers, the Switch would be obviously more compelling than an iPad because there games library can't, and has never had to, compete with dedicated gaming. Plus this thing is going to dominate Japan like none before it. I'm talking DS numbers over there at the very least, no doubt. Currently, that's 33m-ish, in Japan alone. I think Switch likely will eclipse that with maybe 40m, because again, it's fulfilling both a portable and a home market, and it will get both types of games. People aren't appreciating that. Consolidating software ecosystem means consolidating both audiences onto one platform. Wii and DS combined did 250m WW. There's obviously going to be a drop from people who typically bought both, but that isn't most consumers. Seeing the entire Switch platform do around 200m WW over the next 10 years wouldn't surprise me at all. Doing less than 150m would. Of course, this is all IF expensive cart sizes and general storage limitations (the 16/32/128 issue) don't euthanize it, that is. And I think it will, rendering everything I said above moot. Fun to dream, though! |
The only thing I will disagree with you on is that DS and Wii owners were mostly seperate consumers.
