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pray4mojo on 09 December 2016
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CGI-Quality said:
pray4mojo said:

Nothing suggests that sort of decline... apart from every major home console ever released. Unless PS4 manages to be the first console in history to keep it's first three year pace for almost 6 straight years, it's not going to happen. 

In the first three years after the PS3 launched, the PS2 sold roughly 35 million units. The PS3 has managed to sell 13 in comparison. The PS4 is going to have to either be the first console in history to keep it's first three year sales level for 5-6 years, or it's going to have to sell at PS2 levels post PS5. Either way, that's asking alot. 

No, not apart from every major home console release. What you're doing is selective. You can't just look at one trend and call it a day. The PS4 is not going to suddenly stop selling just after three years (and hardly anyone, if anyone, said it would do another 50 million in the same time frame). To get to 100m lifetime, it doesn't have to keep the same pace (the suggestion, in fact, is silly - not sure how you got there) and without anything but wishful thinking, you can't currently point at a slouch that suggests the system has already peaked, either. For all anyone knows, 2017 could be just that.

So, as noted, nothing suggests the decline you expect. 

I based my prediction on the precedent set over the last 30 years. If that ends up wrong, ok. But if I'm a betting man, I always take the field. Always.