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Soundwave on 08 December 2016
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Hiku said:
LipeJJ said:

This is not funny, really. I think OP is exaggerating a bit, but the japanese industry's future will rely on Switch's success (or failure) indeed.

Why? Because now there is no 3DS or 100% portable system from Nintendo anymore, so that's 1 less huge system there. There probably won't be a Vita successor either, so another big system not being there. So that leaves just PS4 and Switch and their successors, as Xbox is insignificant there. So, as you can see, the entire japanese industry can't rely only on 1 system (PS4 and future Playstations)... that's simply not viable. Especially since it doesn't even sell that well (will be lucky to surpass 10m consoles sold). That's why they need the Switch to succeed: it's another viable platform to develop for and since japanese games rarely are demanding, I'm sure 99% of third parties could develop one version for one console and port it to the other one without much hurdles. I think this will benefit PS4 as well, since it makes the chances of japanese third parties succeding bigger.

When it comes to lower budget titles (Think Bravely Default vs Final Fantasy XV, or Phoenix Wright vs Resident Evil) then of course Switch is going to be very important for the Japanese market. Unless Nintendo release another portable device, in case Switch fails on that side.
But even if Switch underperforms at WiiU levels (although I really don't see it selling less than 20m in worst case), what would happen to those games is that many will probably go to smartphones instead of dedicated handhelds. Many of their games already have, and mobile is a quickly growing market.
But it's no secret to developers that console gamers generally moan and groan when those games end up on mobile. Those games generally don't appeal to the core console gaming audience, so there is always a market for console games as well.

Besides making budget titles for mobile to increase profits in between full scale console games, there is a lot more emphasis on DLC today. Final Fantasy XV has a season pass for example. That did not exist for previous games.

Switch needs to sell 20 million. In Japan, alone. It needs to hold 3DS numbers there to keep Japan viable as a traditional gaming nation. 

And third parties need to help Nintendo get there. The Playstation doesn't have an audience for things like JPRGs because Sony makes JRPGs. They have that because every third party makes those games for them. 

Well it's high time these developers helped Nintendo in the same way. If Nintendo is going to have any chance of rescuing the Japanese game industry from self imploding onto itself, it's time for Japanese devs to rally around Nintendo and help them like they did with the Famicom and Super Famicom. 

Nintendo can't do it alone, even though they are going to try as hard as they can. Mario and Pikachu are ready to fight from the looks of it. Are Cloud and Snake and company just going to sit on the sidelines and watch them? Lets see what happens. I hope Japanese developers realize what's at stake and act with appropriate haste. 

The next 3 years I think could determine the fate of the Japanese game market. If it goes badly, then I think there's no coming back. Japan is headed to an iOS/Android gaming future where console gaming is niche and virtually any/all A-AAA traditional game development is null and void. If Nintendo can gain some traction and build an ecosystem that is working well, then there is hope.