That Japan number seems a bit too high, even if it is shipped.But otherwise seems plausible.I personally think it will be close to 15 million than 18 million, but both could happen.
I think 15mil is a good bet. Like i posted this is def a bold prediction especially since 10mil has to jump up 8mil in a month. That said 18mil is reachable but will it hit? Well find out soon enough