My first instinct is to say 30-40m, but this is from the (erroneous) mindset that the Switch is a home console, when in fact it is covering/replacing both Nintendo's home and portable market offerings.
If we are making apples to apples comparisons in terms of unit sales, Switch should be selling closer to the 60m unit life time sales range, arguably over 70m if we simply mash single generation portable and home console sales into one figure, which is not entirely unreasonable.
Of course, what most probably aren't factoring in with regards to their guestimations (let's face it: virtually no one asserting their opinion in this matter has the slightest inkling of what Nintendo's projections are for Switch over the lifetime of the product) is the projected time on the market, which makes all the difference in the world.
Few will argue that the Wii U is being pulled prematurely from the market, to be replaced by Switch, although this assessment is based upon the overextended product life cycle of the original Wii, due equally to the unexpected success on the market as well as the 2008 financial crisis that resulted in all three major console manufacturers extending the duration of the 7th gen.
I stand by the assertion that Nintendo originally had a 4-5 year product lifecycle intended for the Wii (based upon projected sales/demand prior to release), which coincides with the Wii U product lifecycle.
If the Switch is projected to have a similar 4-5 year product lifecycle, that 70m figure suddenly seems like moving the goal posts back in the interest of declaring the product will be a flop before we even have the first year sales figures in.
So, a better question probably would have been directed specifically at those first year sales figures, rather than product lifecycle sales.
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