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That's difficult to say, every person will have a different view as what classifies as success.

For one person simply recovering a chunk of users, say 30 million, after the disastrous WiiU would be a success.

For another they may only class it as a success if it outsells the 3ds+WiiU, assuming Switch is going to cover both these bases for nintendo.

40 Million+ is a moderate success in my books.

60 Million+ should be the target.