Miyamotoo said:
No, totally logical. I talk about facts not about if same game or franchaise have stable sale. Like I wrote: game will sell better on bigger instal base than on smaller, clear fact. Imagine that PS4 has instal base of around 20m, logical assumption (and following current attachment rate for that specific game) would be that U4 would sell around 2m instead of 4m on 40m instal base. There is nothing illogical here. I already wrote that comparing sales of two games on two platforms where one platform have twice bigger instal base than other doesn't make any sense. |
While install base should have some kind of an effect, you're likely dramatically overestimating it in the bolded. There are many other variables, some of which are often far more significant than install base.
Why has Pokemon X/Y sold 15+ million units, rather than 6 - 7 million?
Why did Halo 3, Reach, and 4 all have similar launches, despite dramatically different install bases at each time?
Why is Black Ops 3 on the PS4 seemingly doing better than any previous version of CoD?
Why is God of War 3 the highest selling entry in the series, despite half the number of systems?
Why did Forza Horizon 3 launch better on the X1 than FH2 did on the X1 + 360?
Why do individual game sales not increase with install base?
Why, despite double sales and seemingly similar attach rates, do some series sell less than double on the PS4?
Why did the PS4 version of FIFA15 sell 3:1 versus the X1 version?
Why did Destiny sell more on the PS4/X1 than PS3/360?
Etc
Some of these questions are easier to answer than others, but all are down to variables outside of install base. Often they can make install bases seem almost irrelevant (even if that's not the case).
Like i said, install base no doubt does have some kind of effect, but linear extrapolation isn't logical at all. There are too many other variables, most on which in UC4's case work in its favour (pre-existing fanbase, marketing, etc), that throw the math off.
