| Shadow1980 said:
My prediction is that 2017 will see far more significant YoY growth for the PS4 than for the XBO, while 2018 will see a smaller drop-off percentage-wise for the XBO. I think both systems will peak next year, though. Depending on how popular they are and what effects price drops have on them, the Pro and Scorpio could result in a slower post-peak drop-off for the the PS4 & XBO, which may extend the generation beyond what one would expect from its peak. The console cycle is itself largely predicated on sales (a topic I want to talk about more in-depth in a future post), and a new console is typically released when its predecessor has declined sufficiently, typically 35-50% of peak sales levels. If the post-peak bleed-out can be slowed by cuts to these upgraded 4K models, the PS4 and XBO may be replaced no earlier than 2020, making this generation nearly as long as last generation. |
While that may seem to be the case and that cirvumstances may suggest its true, i dont think thats the primary determinant of vonsole cycles.
I think sales and technology walks hand in hand.
Not "how much" am I selling but rather how well am I selling also, what is my current attach rate for software and then what is the tech like out there and how much better is it than my current hardware and how cost effective is it to incorporate it now.
Let's not forget that consoles are about selling games. That's the key driving factor of a sustainable console business. If The 14M ppl that bought a wiiU for whatever reason bought 10 copies of each game they bought, Nintendo wouldn't have bothered with the NS.
And then the tech, if the tech on the market isn't going to give you a generational leap in performance, then it makes no sense killing off an already existing user base to chase a new one. And that's what we are facing now too. Tech improvements have long since slowed to a crawl now, the GPUs going into the PS4pro or scorpio existed (at least in power) 3 years ago. They are just now at a price point and configuration that can fit into a console form factor.
So what happens if in another three years Sony decides to make another $400 console? With a GPU that's a little over 2 times more powerful than the PS4pro? And sets things up in a way that all games still work across Playstations. PlayStation 4/Pro/5.....
we have the Pro now, is there anyone that really thinks this approach is impossible?
A $400 console in 2019/2020 will basically be a console with about 2-3 times more GPU power than the PS4pro and a CPU of about 2-3 times the power of the original PS4.
I'm finding it hard to believe anyone will hit the reset button anymore. not even Nintendo. At this rate, the NS2 will just be a tablet that's 2-3 times more powerful than the one they are about to make and even plug right into the existing dock.
