Shadow1980 said:
At best, probably something comparable to slimline models, which have historically had a similar impact as price cuts (and in many cases were concurrent with a price cut). At worst, probably something like the New 3DS and DSi, which they are close analogs to. The DSi and New 3DS did have an effect on sales, but the boosts were relatively modest and short-lived, and mostly served to delay the system's terminal decline phase. Since they're being released only two months apart, the PS4 Slim and Pro will probably have a better combined effect on sales. I still think the Slim will be the primary SKU once we get past that initial rush of early Pro adopters as it's the cheaper SKU and thus more appealing to less hardcore gamers. As for the XBO, the Slim is already having its effect, so the Scorpio, depending on its price, may have a more modest effect on its own. My prediction is that 2017 will see far more significant YoY growth for the PS4 than for the XBO, while 2018 will see a smaller drop-off percentage-wise for the XBO. I think both systems will peak next year, though. Depending on how popular they are and what effects price drops have on them, the Pro and Scorpio could result in a slower post-peak drop-off for the the PS4 & XBO, which may extend the generation beyond what one would expect from its peak. The console cycle is itself largely predicated on sales (a topic I want to talk about more in-depth in a future post), and a new console is typically released when its predecessor has declined sufficiently, typically 35-50% of peak sales levels. If the post-peak bleed-out can be slowed by cuts to these upgraded 4K models, the PS4 and XBO may be replaced no earlier than 2020, making this generation nearly as long as last generation. |
I always forget we've been through this before with Nintendo handhelds.
I'm pretty interested to see if Sony's strategy with the Pro or Microsoft's with the Scorpio turns out the best.
