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Dr.Vita said:

6M seems like a given at the moment imo. 6.5M is the goal we should look for.
If PS Vita managed to do 7M at the end then that would be awesome and I would be very happy. 7M seems very difficult but it's still a possible scenario imo.

It's currently at 5.2m, given a good holiday I reckon it could get another 200k or so for the rest of the year, 300k at the most, for a total sales of about 5.5m.

500k until the console is discontinued seems doable, but not much more than that.  I'm expecting sales to decrease a LOT next year as it won't be sustaining a steady 10k p/w.  In addition, there aren't really any 'big' games announced for 2017 yet outside of Super Robot Wars and SAO, neither of which I think will move much hardware.

So I'm thinking more than 6m, but not much more.  Would love to be wrong on that though.