Nautilus said:
My comment was more directed to the other user.While your argument above simply skips many parts of my own argument, that is the Switch wont target only the core gamers and also those that are very casuals, such as the ones that bought the Wii or ones that have interest in Nintendo IPs due to childhood memories(or whatever other reason), through the marketing with the mobile games/movies and all those things(and I shown data that this could work), Im not saying you dont have a reasoning behind your arguments.I mean, you are also right.There are many factors(again, as it is stated in the OP) that could change everything.Plus, its not like "I bought a PS4, Ill never buy another console ever again".I mean, most people that will buy the PS4 Pro probably are already owners of the regular PS4.Thinking they could jump/buy an extra console is not that hard. Im just tired of people claiming that Nintendo wont be able to have a successful console based on stupid reasons, and not giving ny real arguments with data to back them up, as like: A)Its Nintendo, they are always doomed compared to Sony and Microsoft when home console is the subject. B)SPECS!If its not cutting edge and running on 8K, its doomed from the start. C)People acusing users who defend Nintendo of jumping to conclusions, when they themselves jump to conclusions. But Ill give you this:You do know how to argument.Thats more than some users that come bashing Nintendo without having anything to say against.But you then go on to say "Let's not forget the really bad release timing either, in March between the PS4 Pro Christmas and the Xbox Scorpio Chrismas".Why is it a bad timing?Couldnt Scorpio timing be bad, because the Switch could, I dont know, sell like hotcakes and steal all the hype for scorpio?(fun fact:I saw somewhere, that the twitter trend for Switch was about 5 times higher than the trend for RDR2.In other words, even with that hyped game, people wanted to talk about Nintendo)What I mean is, its ALWAYS a "bad timing" for Nintendo to release their stuff.If it was this christams, people would have said it would be suicide against PS4 Pro and PSVR.If it were 2018, because the installed base of PS4 and XOne would be too big.If 2019, it would be bad because of PS5.For some users here, its always a bad timing, and they cant rationalize beyong the Nintendo is doomed perspective. |
I didn't skip the part about the Switch not targeting the core gamers, like the Wii did. I just think that it's absolutely wrong. The Switch has nothing for non-gamers like the Wii had. The Wii was so successful because of the Wiimotes and the "move while playing video games" trend it launched (Wiifit for example, and then Move and Kinect). The Switch has nothing like that : if you're not interested in handheld gaming or home console gaming, you won't be interested in the Switch. So the Switch won't touch the non-gamer crowd the Wii managed to gather for a while (and who completely left the market after that). My family is a good example : at least 3 Wiis were bought when it was popular between my parents, uncles, sister... All left for dead in some drawer after a while and noone will even care about the Switch, there isn't anything in it that push a non-gamer to think "Oh, I should play video games". The few who still like to play video games play mobile games sometime and that's more than enough for them.
We'll see for the Nintendo mobile games. It did give a boost to the 3DS when the Pokemeon Go trend became really big. Not sure we'll see something else like this again, and it didn't really help the Wii U sales either. Video games movies... Bad 99% of the time maybe? Do you remember a good video game movie? The last Mario Bros movie isn't really a great ad for example... Sony is doing TLOU and Uncharted films and I just can't imagine it helping the PS4 sales in some significant way. Theme parks? It's nothing. When will it be done? How many yearly visitors? How many of them won't be Nintendo gamers already? Nintendo games will push the fans to go to the theme parks, not the other way around. Movies could even be a bad buzz for Nintendo, theme parks are a drop in the ocean IMO.
The launch timing is bad for several reason, the most important is that March is nothing compared to Christmas in terms of sales. Then, this Christmas, eveyone will talk about the PS4Pro. In every store, the new product with pictures everywhere will be the PS4Pro. Next Christmas, same thing with the Scorpio, everyone will talk about it and it will be the new product to buy for the hollidays. The Switch will never be a new product in a huge sales period. The Switch need to get big enough in 3 months, between its launch and the Scorpio's reveal at E3. After this reveal (and even some time before in fact), the whole industry will be talking about the Scorpio and the Switch will be put on the background. If the Switch is not really successfull before that, it will be really difficult to come back under the spotlight. That's how marketing and trends work usually. I'm not saying that there is a better timing, just that this one is bad. Launching a entirely new console in the middle of the gen is bad already anyway and they were in a bad spot as soon as they decided to do it IMO.
And the comparison between the RDR2 trailer and the Switch trailer is ridiculous. RDR sold 15 millions games, we're not talking about GTA here. It's a game known by the community, but not by a broader audience. It's not a game that will be even mentioned by non-gaming media (except maybe for the "no women in the trailer" detail). It should be nothing compared to a console revealed only in a video. A lot of people talked about the NX and saw the video, I'm not saying it's not the case. But it doesn't mean anything about the sales of the console. I saw the trailer 3 or 4 times I think. I won't buy the console though. Nintendo doesn't even use this attention to announce more information about the console. It's just a pretty cool trailer everyone will forget about in a few months, especially when the potential "bad news" will be released (specs, battery life, launch line up...). Filming a cool trailer is nice and all, but do cool video game trailers always mean great games and great sales? Of course not.
It will depends on the specs, line up and price. But you can't magically create an audience. If the gen sell 200M home consoles, it will already be a great number. 80M consoles will already be sold when the Switch will release, and it won't sell 100 M out of the potential 120M left. That's why I said 50M max if it's succesfull (50M more PS4 max, 20M Xbox in that case), but 20 or 30 millions are possible if it's not that popular (for a max total of 170-180M consoles sold on an overall disappointing gen, it seems adequate). The only really unknown variable here is the 3DS crowd. As long as Nintendo doesn't kill the 3DS (and as I said earlier, I don't think they will), this audience shouldn't move in large numbers. And even if they kill the 3DS without any successor, if you take out of the 60M 3DS the players who own several 3DS, the players who own a Wii U or other home console and already plan to buy a Switch or not, the players who will go to mobile gaming, and the players who will just keep their 3DS and not buy anything for a while... It won't make the (at least) 50M missing for the 100M objective. Nintendo lost 50% of its handheld audience with the DS-3DS transition after all, it won't be better with a potential 3DS-Switch transition (even worse because mobile gaming keeps getting stronger).
We will be able to do more precise predictions when we'll get the details. 100M seems just completely out of the question for now. Maybe if they sell it at $150 or less... Otherwise, half of this would already be a good success for a mid-gen launch against already well-established consoles.
