Mummelmann said:
100 million Switch sales is extremely optimistic. PS4 is set to have around 50-51 million sales by the end of the year (which is less than I expected as can be seen in my sig, and people said I was being too pessimistic with my predictions), by which time it will have been on the market for over 3 years. The PS2 had a decade long lifespan and several 20 million + selling years, the PS4 is yet to even come close to a 20 million CY and won't have anywhere near as long a life as the PS2 or the PS3, most likely. The market is moving too fast and has branched out and become hinged upon competing on non-gaming features, constant revision and updates and there is no real developer incentive for keeping the 8th gen around as long as the 7th gen, which saw the rise of HD gaming and development tools and method was put in place and losses recovered on all sides by expanding the cycle. How will the PS4 sell 110 million or more? How much will the PS4 Pro help the PS4 in total, will it lift it into a much higher baseline for 2017? How will it do that and why? The Xbox One has "won" North America three months in a row with the Slim, PS4's own slim didn't help them all that much and even if the PS4 is thrashing the Xbox and Wii U in Japan, it's really not selling impressive numbers at all there, and hasn't for the entire gen, much like the PS3 before it. If the Xbox One Slim beats the PS4 Slim in North America, there is little reason to think that Scorpio won't beat the Pro in that region and with Japan mostly being irrelevant today, scraping together 110 million or more sales is simply not something I can any of the three doing easily any longer in the modern market. 100 million is not a certainty either, no more so than the PS3 catching the Wii like so many said it would. 110 million sales for the PS4 is very unrealistic, but 100 million sales for the Switch at present is even more so. |
This is a joke, right? PS4 only doing ~50M by the end of the year? You do realize that the PS4 was at 43.5 as of June 30th, and shipped 3.5M in the previous 3 months (which aren't exactly the busiest months of the year for HW), right? You really don't think it'll ship another 10M+ in the following 6 months of the year after June? Even with the holiday season coming up and the Pro launching? Awfully pessimistic of you. Especially when it shipped 8.4M the last quarter of 2015 and will probably beat that this year with the Pro and Slim/price cut.
This year will most likely not be the peak year of the PS4, either, as I think that will go to 2017. We have a lot of great SW launching next year, which most will have PS4 bundles, and it will be a full year of Pro and Slim sales. Next holiday season, Sony will also most likely be dropping the price of the Pro to $349 and the Slim to $249, with a $199 BF SKU.
As for XBO winning (you were right to put that in quotations) the US, the only reason that is even happening is that many are waiting for the Pro. Even with the Pro siphoning sales, the XBO only outsold the PS4 by ~160K over 3 months. Going by Amazon, there's a possibility that the XBO will only slightly outsell the PS4 in Oct, even with GeOW4 and BF1, with a slim possibility that the PS4 actually has a slight edge. Come Nov, I won't be surprised if the PS4 completely wipes out any gains the XBO has made.
And this gen will be shorter than last gen, but it will not be any shorter than the PS2 era, which was out 6 years before the PS3 launched. I expect the same for the PS4, with the PS5 most likely launching in 2019. At that point the PS4 will be $199, with the Pro being $299, which will help it continue to sell decently even after the PS5 is launched. Speaking of PS2, the PS4 is still outpacing it. Not saying that will last forever, but it will make 100M+ an easy get.
