(Update: 100 million mark reached!)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

[zorg1000]

Hiku said:

zorg1000 said:

I agree with alot of your points but i think his main argument is that PS3/360 had incredibly late peaks due to PS3 being so expensive early on and taking a few years to get to consumer friendly levels while 360 had Kinect release late in its life which went on to become a huge casual hit for a couple years.

With PS4/XBO, they have both gotten to consumer friendly prices much quicker, both are $299 with $249 being pretty likely for holiday deals this year. They also probably wont have late life casual accessories. Its possible VR will be that big hit but I dont see it with the price its offered at ($399 for PSVR vs $149 for Kinect in 2010/2011).

It seems very likely that PS4/XBO will peak much earlier than PS3/360 did and that sales will be more front-loaded. With that said, I do believe that PS4 can hit 110 million.

PS3 in particular certainly took a while to reach an attractive price. But if I'm not mistaken, X360 continued to generally outsell PS3 in the USA pretty much every month, even to this day. In the end the numbers are roughly 29m vs 48m. I don't expect XBO to pass PS4 by any significant margain in the USA this generation. Certainly not by a 20m margain. So I think that makes a compelling statement for PS4 managing to capture a significantly larger portion of the US market this generation, even if PS3 and X360 sales were understandibly more front loaded.

Yes, the PS/XB split in America will be much closer this generation than it was last generation and like I said, I believe PS4 has a very real chance of hitting 110 million.