(Update: 100 million mark reached!)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

[zorg1000]

Hiku said:

PS2 sold 157m. That's not the closets comparison for PS4. Compare it to PS3 instead. PS3 did 86m. You don't think PS4 will at least do 100m then? I feel that's very likely. And then there's a 10m margain to 110m. Certainly not out of the realm of possibilities imo. While the Japanese market has declined, PS4 is taking a much bigger marketshare in the US than it did with the PS3.

And let's not blow the 3-NPD-in-a-row out of proportion just yet. It's not enough to demonstrate a pattern yet, with people holding off for PS4 Pro, and there being more of a reason for XBO owners to upgrade to XBO S than there is for PS4 owners to upgrade to PS4 Slim. Which may have a limited effect on sales with a burst growth in the initial months, but when it comes to ppl who don't own either console, PS4 and Pro may very well still turn out to be the console of choice in USA. On top of that we don't even know the difference in sales numbers for the past two months I believe? Xbox One outsold PS4 by as little as 5k units during Halo 5 month, for example. If those are the kind of sales differences we've seen for the past few month, then it will take decades for XBO to close the 2m gap in the usa.

I agree with alot of your points but i think his main argument is that PS3/360 had incredibly late peaks due to PS3 being so expensive early on and taking a few years to get to consumer friendly levels while 360 had Kinect release late in its life which went on to become a huge casual hit for a couple years.

With PS4/XBO, they have both gotten to consumer friendly prices much quicker, both are $299 with $249 being pretty likely for holiday deals this year. They also probably wont have late life casual accessories. Its possible VR will be that big hit but I dont see it with the price its offered at ($399 for PSVR vs $149 for Kinect in 2010/2011).

It seems very likely that PS4/XBO will peak much earlier than PS3/360 did and that sales will be more front-loaded. With that said, I do believe that PS4 can hit 110 million.