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I can confidently say that it will sell zero units this year (pre-orders don't count).

I can also confidently say that the launch NS SKU will not sell anywhere close to 100 million units.

If the NS launches at $199, it will sell 40+ million units. If it launches at $250 or more, it will sell less than 25 million units (basically just to the Nintendo fanbase). I think this will hold true no matter what the other specs are (hardware specs, online capabilities, battery life, etc).