Now that is a good point :)
Without Sony doing a new handheld, the intire market basically just goes to Nintendo.
That alone is probably worth 14m or so, ontop of the 60m or so 3DS sales there are.
I know the real number will probably be abit smaller than that, but thats potentially 70-75m right there alone from the handheld side of things.
I bet alot of people that own a Wii U also have either a 3DS or Vita, so its probably not going to be much higher than that.
Thats the stuff that makes me think maybe if Nintendo does well with the Switch it could reach upwards of those levels (70m+).
Its hard to tell though, and some people here seem really pessimistic about it, while others are very optimisic.
I hope nintendo does do well though.
I will say this though.... handheld market is typically more price sensitive than the home console markets.
Alot of this hinges on Nintendo selling the Switch at a reasonable price.
I have over 40 games for my Vita and PS TV. As uncomfortable as it might be, the Vita still fits in my coat pocket. There's no chance the NS fits in anything smaller than my backpack. I have absolutely no interest in the Switch.
You probably shouldn't make assumptions about Vita owners. If we wanted a Nintendo handheld, we would have alos bought a 3DS wouldn't we?