Now that you have seen the Nintendo Switch do you think it will be successful?

[Asriel]

I think Switch will be fairly successful, though the odds of it being a break-out hit like DS and Wii are slim. Any chance at a mass-market break-out will hinge on Nintendo leveraging mobile popularity and pushing mobile consumers onto Switch, as well as the kind of viral stuff you really can't manage, e.g. people using local multiplayer Switch in public and attracting good word of mouth that way.

Right now I think the system could do anywhere from 40 million to 70 million in 6 years. I think much of the 3DS and Wii U market will end up migrating to Switch, and, the system has a good shot at becoming the market leader in Japan, especially if it secures Monster Hunter 5 in addition to having the next Pokemon, Splatoon and Animal Crossing. A market leading performance in Japan could see the system power to 20 or 25 million units on Japanese sales alone, which would allow Nintendo to keep supporting the system and which would lead to a steady flow of Japanese software hitting shelves and the digital store in Europe and the US, which would keep sales ticking over there. In that scenario, Western sales hitting anywhere from 15 to 30 million combined would see Switch a decent success for Nintendo.

For Nintendo to hit the higher end, the Switch will need to be affordable from day one, and Nintendo software will have to appear regularly. They've promised (again) that they've learnt how droughts damage their hardware, and they've reorganised their development structures in the face of that, but we still don't know if there's going to be a difference for sure. On top of that, Nintendo's efforts to secure more software need to succeed. I don't think constantly getting every big multi-platform title is necessary, but certainly Nintendo need the family friendly hits like Skylanders, LEGO, Rayman and Just Dance coming to their system, which could help them dominate Christmas sales seasons once again. They also need to secure exclusives and whatever multi-platform titles will work on Switch, and indie titles too. A larger, more varied software catalogue will attract more consumers in the West, but Nintendo's own marquee titles need to be the backbone of the software catalogue. If Nintendo don't create a user-base quickly, there won't be a market for third parties to sell into. Equally Nintendo need some patience and need to encourage patience from third parties. If the initial third party support from Western publishers consists of late ports launching along side titles like Zelda, Splatoon, Mario Kart and a brand new Mario during 2017, then many third party games will fail and some publishers (like EA) will be quick to pull support. Nintendo need to know what kind of third party support they want, and what kind of support will work around their own software.

I think the reveal was intelligent, and it sold a clearer picture of what Switch is than Nintendo managed with Wii U in the 18 months leading up to launch. There's still a lot to get right, but the list of supported software engines and software partners is promising. A much hyped Zelda game at launch is also a very strong bonus for Switch, but there's still a lot of work to do before launch. Nintendo can't afford the post-launch droughts that killed Wii U and hampered 3DS, and they can't afford the kind of OS and network problems Wii U had day one, which gave a confusing system a poor reputation it never recovered from. They have their work cut out with Switch, but I think we're looking at a system that can do well if Nintendo play their cards right.