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Swordmasterman on 16 October 2016
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Shadow1980 said:
globalisateur said:

I totally disagree with you and your analysis here. I think people won't buy more XB1s next year because of Scorpio. And don't forget that those 3 last NPDs were won by MS thanks to the crazy deals about everywhere. They wanted to clear stocks of old OG and sell the maximum XB1s they could to undermine 4 Pro imminent release. 

That can't be sustained throught the whole 2017 year, even in USA.

And once people will understand that Scorpio will be the real next gen of Microsoft with Scorpio exclusives, they are going to stop buying XB1 like crazy.

Scorpio is not a next-gen system. It is obviously an upgraded XBO designed to take advantage of 4K, HDR, and VR, just as the PS4 Pro is to the PS4. And, VR games excepted (as VR apparently can't run on weaker XBO models), the Scorpio won't have any exclusives, as stated quite plainly by both Aaron Greenberg and Phil Spencer.

In any case, the Scorpio is too far out to be cannibalizing any XBO sales right now. It doesn't even have a firm release date or a price point yet. This gives the XBO S plenty of time to carry the XBO all on its lonesome. And while I think these upgraded versions of both the PS4 and XBO will do good at launch, I do not think they'll be the primary SKUs going forward as there's no reason to have them unless you're planning on getting an 4K TV and/or investing in VR. But the reasons for the existence of these upgraded models is also the biggest obstacle to their success. VR is expensive, and 4K penetration is still pretty low. Even as the Pro and Scorpio get cheaper, there is not much reason to upgrade to either if you're not interested in VR and are sticking with regular 1080p HDTVs. The XBO & PS4 "families" will both see their total sales decline substantially by time VR gets cheap enough for mass adoption, and long before 4K TV reaches a majority of households (4K penetration is estimated to hit only about a third of U.S. households in 2019). People are expecting too much out of the Pro and Scorpio, as if they'll have the same effect on sales as true next-gen console will. At best, they'll do to sales what the DSi and New 3DS did to sales of their respective platforms.

Would be silly for Microsoft to announce "Beyond generations" and then, 1 year after, announce Scorpio as a next gen Xbox.