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globalisateur on 16 October 2016
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Shadow1980 said:
jason1637 said:

 

TRhis generation is probably more front-loaded compared to the last generation because of the third party support and online integration. Third parties supported the PS2 years after the PS3 came out so many people probably stayed on those consoles. This gen m,ost third parties starting phasing out their big games in early 2015 with the only third party games coming to last gen were lazy ports(BO3) or sports games. This probably got people to buy the 8th gen systems. As for Online people might have seen their xbox360 or PS3 friends moved on to the xb1 or ps4 so they bought these consoles to continue to play with friends.

I don't know. I think the biggest part for the 360 & PS3 having "meh" sales early in their lives wasn't really the games. I think pricing was the biggest issue. They had plenty of big titles early on. Xbox had yet to build momentum, and that $400 price point didn't help anything, plus there was the notorious RRoD issue. The PS3 could have ridden the PS2's momentum, but the sticker shock of $500 for the 20 GB SKU and $600 for the 60GB was a momentum killer.

I think this year will probably be the PS4s peak. The Pro is doing really well, and I believe were going to see a $250 PS4 Slim. The PS4 also had big games like UC4. Next year for Xbox because of the S effect Scorpio, halo wars 2 and other games. Next year will probably be a huge year for console sales due to the slims, the enhanced consoles, and NX.

If this year is the PS4's peak, then that will be a huge disappointment. Unless this holiday season is massively, staggeringly huge, then there's no way 2017 won't be up YoY. For the Slim & Pro to be a success, PS4 sales for the Q1-Q3 period next need to be up substantially from the same period this year. Considering the PS4 is at about 2188k for the year so far, anything less than 2600k for the Q1-Q3 period of next year would be a disappointment, and for it to be truly strong it should be at least 2800k if not upwards of 3M, considering the PS3 got a 42% YoY boost in the first half of 2010 vs. the first half of 2009, all thanks to the PS3 Slim. Q4 next year may or may not be down YoY from this year's Q4, but if there's a permanent price cut to $250 for the Slim and $350 for the Pro, it could happen.

As for the XBO, next year will almost definitely be the peak. The S model should continue to carry the system at relatively strong levels well into next year, and we should see a permanent reduction to $250 close to when the Scorpio is released, if not before, which when combined with the Scorpio launch (assuming it has a reasonable price) should drive the XBO to a strong Q4 next year, and if the Q1-Q3 period is up sufficiently, I think we could see YoY growth of at least 20% compared to this year. What happens in 2018 will depend on pricing and if Halo 6 is released in the fall, but it should be a strong year. The one-year gap between the S model and the Scorpio may result in a less pronounced peak in its curve than the PS4 does with Slim & Pro being a one-two punch spaced apart by only two months.

I totally disagree with you and your analysis here. I think people won't buy more XB1s next year because of Scorpio. And don't forget that those 3 last NPDs were won by MS thanks to the crazy deals about everywhere. They wanted to clear stocks of old OG and sell the maximum XB1s they could to undermine 4 Pro imminent release. 

That can't be sustained throught the whole 2017 year, even in USA.

And once people will understand that Scorpio will be the real next gen of Microsoft with Scorpio exclusives, they are going to stop buying XB1 like crazy.