Can the 3DS cross 70M LT?

[tak13]

It's somewhat logical to say that It won't cross 70m ( and no legs ), since it could have bad holidays despite pokemon S/M+pokemon go, ( maybe super Mario run ) 2DS+MK7 at 80$ and its release in Japan due to NX launch being close...
However, predicting that it will end with 65m? Extremely irrational! Nintendo forecast is about 64m 3ds sold as of March 2017, that before Pokémon go increasing 3ds sales! 5m for the whole FY is a low aim ( notably that it has all of the aforementioned chanches fo ar boost ), hence a feasible aim.
They shipped 1m in the first quarter, 4m left, we should see the boost by Pokémon go in the second quarter!

They should discontinue 3ds in 2017 for 65m, and 3ds has games for 2017, plus that Nintendo handheld consoles keep selling for another 2 to 4 years...

Seriously, with some comments I'm wondering if people thought thoroughly before posting their expectations!


Nintendo is flooding holidays, with NEW 3DS XL/2DS pokemon S/M limited editions and they just changed the 2ds color scemes, is that showing a company that has abandoned the pushing of its HC? For a hc, which in spite of being near to its end, they held a direct with many new games for it.
They just released 2ds in Japan and it's doing well, keeping 3ds steadily WYOY up! Also they have completely abandoned wii u to focus on 3ds promotion not because wii u was done.



What's with that pessimism and anticipation of no legs?


We have yet to see a price drop for the NEW 3DS XL and 2ds is ridiculously cheap bundled with MK7!

For history, sales of Nintendo handheld consoles after their successor coming out. ( ROUNDED NUMBERS )

GBC->GBA 5M FY02 4.7M FY01 0.3M
( GBC, A GB REVISION BUT WITH ITS OWN BRAND NEW HUGE GAME LIBRARY, RELEASED 1998 AFTER 9 YEARS OF GB )

GBA-> DSL 6.42M FY07 4.4M FY08 1.6M FY09 0.42M
( NOT FAT DS, BECAUSE IT WASN'T A HOT THING THAT DSL BECAME AND DIDN'T INFLUENCED GBA SALES MUCH IN THE WEST, IT WAS RELEASED IN THE THIRD FY OF GBA )

DS->3DS 7.6M FY12 5.1M FY13 2.35M FY14 0.13 FY15 0.02M FY16 0.01M
( FROM FY 2012 BECAUSE 3DS IN FY11 WASN'T DOING WELL TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON DS SALES )


Keep in mind that all of the above successors  had BC which made their predecessors obsolete and useless, NX doesn't seem that it will have BC with 3ds!


On average, GBC/GBA/DS had 6.34m onwards sales.  Are you still oreseeing 65m for 3DS?

Taking into account the above clues, I could say that crossing 70m isn't a diffuclt task.
I would be shocked if 3ds falls ashort of 70m, especially if its even under 69m, the eventuality of 69m is not low though, it depends on this holidays pefromance!

Here's a projection of sales based on 70m:

FY16 65m 6m ( 1m more than Nintendo's forecast, mainly due to the unforeseen big pokemon go boost )
NX RELEASE
FY17 68M 3M
FY18 69.5M 1.5M
FY19 69.9M 0.4M
FY20/21 70m 0.1M

So, another 5M sales during nx life time, on par with gbc and close to the average onwards sales of gbc/gba/ds!

P.s
3DS might surprise us by approaching 80m, I mean ending up with 77m, since every quarter it's at the half of ds sales! NX may not have 3ds compatability and 3ds salescomparison with previous Nintendo HC shows that there is room for 3ds growth in NA, even if it's very late, these could lead to outstanding legs! 3DS is a lot down compared with gba in NA, while in Europe they are equal and in Japan 3ds has outperformed it for a great margin!