Why do we insist that NX has to be another PS or XB, or else it'll fail?

[zorg1000]

archer9234 said:

torok said:

If they keep it safe and do a cheap console, they can make good numbers and keep going. Then I see no major growth to their product. Maybe Mario Jump help get people to get some sales. But it won't reach nice numbers.

If they make a 400 bucks console and the 3rd party option backfires, they will end up with another Wii U and now without a 3DS to back it up since it's a single platform. Selling just 15M consoles in a single gen (since it's a combined platform) would pretty much do a massive damage to Nintendo. Nintendo wouldn't just discontinue the 3DS. Intill they know the NX is in a okay shape. Just like the GBA was planned. If the DS didn't work.

Torok is right, you might not think there is a lot of room for growth by going low-cost/casual route but there is far less room for growth by releasing a PS/XB type of console.

By March 2017 (when NX is scheduled to release) PS4+XBO sales will be around 90 million.

Will the people who already own one of these devices make the jump to NX to play the same 3rd party games they already have access to? No, if they buy an NX than it will be for the 1st/2nd party exclusives and if these people are looking to upgrade than they will choose the Pro/Scorpio since they can still play all their games and keep their account system.

Are future customers looking for a console to play the big mainstream 3rd party games going to choose NX over PS4/Pro/XBO/Scorpio? Some maybe, but most wont. They will choose the established devices with a few years worth of games to play & have large online communities and if they are into power than they will choose Pro/Scorpio since its very, very unlikey NX will be more powerful than those even if they try to go head to head with PS/XB.

Making a PS/XB device in the middle of a console cycle would be a very unwise idea for Nintendo. The only way that Nintendo could potentially steal away a large amount of these people would be release a vastly more powerful console than PS/XB at the transition point between generations. Had they released a $400, 1TB+, 8GB RAM console back in 2012 instead of Wii U than maybe they could have gotten PS3/360 owners to upgrade but they missex their chance.