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Mike_L said:
Kerotan said:

It will end up closer to half then a third.  People need to stop bringing up the ps2. That market is gone.  It's now a market where 10m is what you can sell.  Wii and ps3 beat it,  ps4 will come close and might beat it too. I'll just leave this here.  Ps4 is tracking very well.  

 

 

 

Credit: hiska-kun on gaf. 

Bold: Oh, if we consider PS3 sales in Japan to be a success and if we consider 10 mill to be the maximum sales for a home console in Japan nowadays then your point is valid. But that doesn't negate the fact that the popularity of home consoles has declined in Japan.

Personally, I predict that PS4 will end up with 7-8 mill lifetime sales in Japan and that is far from how other home consoles have performed there. Though as I said to Miyamotoo that may turn out to be respectable sales in the end due to Japan preferring handheld gaming even more today than they used to.

 

PosPlatformJapan
1 PlayStation 2 (PS2) 23.18
2 PlayStation (PS) 19.36
3 Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) 19.35
4 Super Nintendo Entertainment System (SNES) 17.17
5 Wii (Wii) 12.77
6 PlayStation 3 (PS3) 10.43

I think just short of 4m by the end of the year,  5.5m for 2017, 7m for 2018, 8.5m 2019 and 2021/22/23 it will be between 9-11m.

 

Which puts it in the same bracket as ps3. By today's market that's basically as good as you'll get unless Nintendo, Sony and all third parties work on the same console.