I think price is key. People who haven't made the leap to current gen can't afford or justify the price. It probably goes:
1) hardcore fans who can afford to buy at launch
2) people who wanted it day 1 but took longer saving up
3) people who waited for the first price drop and a bigger library
4) people who can't afford it or don't get as much time to game due to commitments who wait for a big price drop (slim console).
I think Sony designs their slims so they can target a new wave of customers with each iteration by making the jump to their platform cheaper.
The risk with MS's slim might be it having to compete with a more powerful gaming platform that's a lot cheaper and also competing with a system that's almost 3 times more powerful at a similar cost.
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