Too many variables to make any kind of final prediction but looking at the market today, I think Nintendo is looking at strong sales of NX in Japan, but probably just "ok", maybe somewhat mediocre sales in the West.
It will really depend on how they handle the Android issue IMO. A portable device released in this day and age without access to the app features kids/teenagers/grown ups love is going to be a tough sell in the West even with all the Nintendo games. They need to square up with this audience and get them on their side instead of fighting against mobile. You can't win that fight. If they could do that the upside in sales for the unit could change.
I would say 35-50 million right now for NX though, that would be down from the 3DS, but it could still be a decent number. I'm assuming that Nintendo will get some design elements right, but a few wrong. I guess that would be disspointing in the context that Wii U + 3DS sold probably about 74-75 million but I think Nintendo will also have large profits from a new second (first?) pillar this gen which will be mobile games so that more than cancels out the contribution made by the Wii U this gen. If they have a break out new type of hit software obviously that number goes up.
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