| Shadow1980 said: If there were no price cuts or new models this year for the PS4, I would have estimated it to be around 5.7-5.8M. However, I suspect the Slim and Neo together to provide at least a 20% YoY increase for Q4 this year over Q4 2015 figures. September should be at least 300k as well if the Slim launches early enough. That would put the PS4 at around 2230k for the Q1-Q3 period. Assuming Q4 is exactly 20% higher than last Q4, that's at least 6.3M for the year. However, that's a conservative estimate. A 30% YoY boost for Q4 sales, which could be likely if the Slim gets a temporary $50 price cut for Black Friday weekend and the last couple of weeks before Christmas (which could be the new norm), would yield over 4400k for Q4, bringing the total to around 6.65M. 6.3-6.7M is the most likely range, so I just split the middle and go with 6.5M. |
I think you are too optimist here.
PS4 last year sold ~5.73 million, and so far is down YOY. If Neo and Slim release in October, looks like will be down even this August/September, possible by a good margin since both were pretty strong (209k/354k), probabily >150k.
Now, it will surely be up by a good margin this October, while i don't think will be up by too much in November and December, cause both were insane months (1.54m/1.58m) thanks the $299 pricedrop during Black Friday (equal price to XBO), and the line up of Star Wars, Fallout 4, and of course Black Ops III, one of the bigger COD of the story.
Are you expect +2 million in November and December NPD 2016 for PS4? cause i'm saying is impossible but looks really hard to me, you know, only the Wii in 2008 did over 2 million in November(2.04m).
I personally expect for the rest of year something like:
Aug - 165k (down 44k)
Sep - 225k (down 129k)
Oct - 400k (up 125k)
Nov - 1.7m (up 161k)
Dec - 1.7m (up 118k)
Total 2016 - 5.93m
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