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Soundwave on 11 August 2016
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Shadow1980 said:
Nymeria said:

Great post and contibution Shadow1980

I agree swing state is hard to define at times, and on my own map I agree the rust belt will go blue in 2016.  

I am curious about your views on Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico.

New Mexico went blue in 08 and 12 by strong margins and all indicators I found seem to suggest 16 be much of the same, yet you have it red.
I can agree Colorado as a swing, but it went blue in 08 and 12 by good margins as well and polling data I found shows Clinton up by 8-10 points there.
Nevada falls into that category as well, while Clinton's lead is less, my sense off past four election cycles is it going blue by about 2-3 points.

I see Arizona and Georgia hanging on as red, but they will be far more interesting and close than prior cycles.  If Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia were to go blue have to rethink how both parties approach the south.

New Mexico being red instead of blue was an error on my part. And that puts a small error in my math, but one that narrows Trump's paths to victory down considerably. I'll edit my post's text after I eat to account for that, but I did go ahead and change the map.

Colorado and Virginia are looking increasingly like a Clinton win. Those two alone would put her at 269, one vote short of what she needs. New Hampshire is looking increasingly safe for her as well, so CO, VA, and NH alone would put her over the 270 mark.

Nevada is close, as are Iowa, Florida, NC, and Ohio. I'd rate those five as the purest toss-up states. Arizona and Georgia will be interesting to watch as well, but I think Trump will still pull off a narrow victory in AZ. Georgia is up in the air, though. Trump had a lead throughout the primary season, but the two post-convention polls we have put Clinton in the lead. We need more polling data for Georgia.

With the current polling data, here's how I'd put everything in terms of blue, red, and toss-up:

 

Things aren't looking good for Trump. Not that I'm complaining. Things could change over the next three months, but unless he gets his act together, gets better with organizing his campaign, learns to watch his mouth, and has a great performance in the debates, this election will be Hillary's to lose. I think we'll see an electoral landslide comparable to what Obama got.

Oh, and in some interesting polling news, a new PPP poll puts my home state of South Carolina at Trump 41, Clinton 39, a slim two-point gap. Now, that's just a single poll, and we have hardly any other polling data for South Carolina, so I'd still rate SC at least as "lean GOP." But the most interesting takeaway from this poll is that under-65 voters in SC preferred Hillary over Trump 41% to 36%. That means that in the coming decades SC could become increasingly purple, though Georgia will likely become a true swing state much sooner. But even the possibility of the Democrats winning SC means that younger voters like myself don't need to sit on our duffs because we think SC is a "safe" state for the GOP. Every vote counts. Everywhere.

Clinton is up big in Colorado too, up 9 points according to RCP. Trump get slaughtered in younger demographics is not a surprise in the recent CNN poll (I think) he was losing to under 45 year old voters by a whopping 63-33 margin. The future of the GOP could be really fucked if they don't start making adjustments.