Soundwave said:
We're just going to have to agree to disagree on the vanilla Nintendo box theory, that somehow a "regular" Nintendo console would be a huge success at this stage of the game. I'm not sure where exactly I said the console portion of this would be a huge success, "huge success" is an ambiguous statement anyway, gaining a portion of the market and additional profit, to add to Nintendo's money generation capabilities. Ignoring that part of the market is missing out on making money. Developers would prioritize all of XB1, Scorpio, PSNeo, PS4, all these systems have different GPUs, so I don't see them as the same system and 3/4 of them would have large headstarts over the NX. Launch PS4 and XB1 have the same architecture, as far as I'm aware AMD aren't planning a refresh or major change to Polaris in the next 16 months, so Scorpio and Neo will also likely share that and an NX console could potentially (most likely) have the same tech for it's GPU, maybe even the same CPU Architecture as Scorpio, tbh it really doesn't make a huge difference to developers. What matters to developers is if their games will sell and as I've always said about Nintendo since I started commenting on this forum Nintendo doesn't sell much 3rd party software because their exclusives don't cater to that market, but that market was essentially built by them back in the NES and SNES days, a decent chunk of PS1 gamers came from playing on those systems because Nintendo didn't grow up with them and keep them in the kind of games they wanted to play. You don't make the kind of games you are deluding yourself into thinking most people want to keep playing, as a busines you make a product that gives people what they want. It would be the GameCube all over again if Nintendo tried to compete head on in these conditions, quite possibly worse, at least with the GameCube, MS was also starting at 0 and Sony only had a 18 million unit lead or so and there was no PS2 Neo. Nope it wouldn't, because Gamecube, just like every Nintendo platform that has been put out by them since they began to decline didn't have games to pull in a decent share of the dedicated gaming market, it also wasn't part of a unified gaming platform that would potentially be able to directly play everything it's handheld brother can, along with even more to boot. Gamecube was once again made for what Nintendo wanted to put on the system, not what the changing market wanted to play. If Nintendo continues down the path you're on about them continuing, with their software line-up then they'll continue to die, as they have been for all but the 6th gen of consoles. Nintendo doesn't need to dominate the mobile market. Last year there were 250 million tablets sold worldwide, if Nintendo could add even 5 million of those customers to their yearly handheld sales (lets assume a decline of only 7-8 million units/year from that crowd, waaaaaaay down from the 30 million/year DS hey day), that would bring them back up to 13-14 million portable shipments per year, which is a fairly healthy number. I never said anything about dominating and BTW no the tablet market didn't sell 250 million tablets last year, it shipped 206M, which was a 10.1% decline compared to the previous year. Here's a source for the figures: https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS40990116 Only Amazon and Huawei saw growth, the rest of product makers saw declines in their sales. Apple still owns the majority fo the lion's share, generally people want cheap tablets and a gaming tablet will likely cost more than most tablet customers will want to pay. Unless an NX tablet system has the same level of functionality as those devices, for a competitive price people won't choose it and Nintendo's name won't carry them anywhere, especially where people aren't really looking at the gaming functionality outside of wanting something simple, Candy Crush, Pokemon Go or the like. And those are pretty modest estimates, that would be Nintendo getting a 0.02% market share of tablets sold with an Android app enabled NX. I'm hardly suggesting they go head on with Apple or something. With that extra 5 million/year you have a platform that goes from 35-40 million units after 5 years to 65-70 million instead. Actually at 206 million units shipped in 2015, Nintendo would need 2% market share to sell 4.12 million units, with sales based on 2015 shipment figures, sales will likely have declined way more by 2017 in the tablet sales market, people seem to be shifting over to buying detachable PC replacements, not continuing this trend of buying new tablets. Anyway these guesstimates are just randomly pulled out of thin air, without any real basis to them and the numbers don't carry any kind explanation of how Nintendo are going to gain even a 2% share, which would maybe put NX tablet at selling 20 million units lifetime. Obviously you can assume that NX tablet will match 3DS figures of sales, but that's a separate market, that is the dedicated gaming device market, not the tablet market. In order to keep the sales up in that market Nintendo needs to be serious about the diversity of it's line-up and they need to pull at the potential gamers who are still yet to upgrade to an 8th gen console or the ones that still want a decent handheld gaming device that can give them the experiences they want to play and also they need to target the people who make the money, be it kids going into their first jobs or people that played Nintendo back in the day that are thinking about their next device. Seriously if Nintendo came out with a system that gives people what they know Nintendo for and also their take on big games like 3rd party (not just western, but worldwide) then this Nintendo device or these Nintendo devices would do considerably better than a platform being handled like Nintendo has been handling their recent devices. A console with access to everything Nintendo, true 3rd party targeted exclusive games, along with every multiplat and a device that can allow people the ability to play all of that anywhere would be huge. |
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