1. Nintendo is really the sole participator in the dedicated handheld market (sorry Vita) and Although it's shrinking they have this 30-50m audience on lock.
2. On Top of that theyll have the additional audience from the tablet space. They don't need to outsell Apple or Samsung in order to make meaningful sales here. There are dozens of self sustaining tablet brands and room for competition, around 200m+ tablets are sold each year. Progess they make here is in addition to their core hanhldheld audience. None of the competing brands have the Use of Nintendos exclusive experience, the value of which Nintendo hope to increase through stuff like Pokemon Go.
3.You make blind comparisons to Vita software as if modnation racers and a watered down Uncharted is comparable to Pokemon RPGs and Mario Kart. Similarly decade late mobile ports and cheap spin offs don't make for a good comparison either.
Nintendo are merely looking to consolidate all their audiences interests into one convenient purchase. They'd need to mess pretty bad for it to fail. They should find enough success in Japan alone to make sure they make a healthy profit with NX
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