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I think it's number 3. The jrpgs are coming in thick and fast, with World of Final Fantasy and FFXV not far off. I can see how the current supply based on sales since launch won't be enough for the incoming spikes for when these games release.

I don't think Sony can make their console smaller without removing the power brick. Even the X1S with a smaller chip struggles beating the overall size of the PS4.

I can see a price cut along with a Neo launch in September. Base model being $250 for 500GB and Neo being $399 for a 1TB model.