I cant answer for the rest of the Wii user base but I wouldn't be in any rush to get a GTA mainly because GTA makes me physically sick when playing it.
But reasonably it would sell but let's be specific.
A late release of GTAIV would probably reach 1 million after a few months on the Wii, mainly my refference for this will be Bully, you'd have to look at the % for bully on the PS2 vs GTA San Andreas on the PS2.
Then you'd have to place GTA San Andreas vs GTA IV % to find the difference, then you would have to check Bully PS2 sales in % vs Bully Wii. After that just relate the % of Bullies success on the wii to a GTA San Andreas Wii incanration, then add the difference of past to make GTAIV sales, compare it to How much over Bully that would be in % and multiply.
That should give a fair projected ammount for GTAIV on the Wii, which that is assuming a PS2 Port would have the same effect and a PS3 port.
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