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Actually, it needs to make closer to $400 million to just break even. It will lose Sony somewhere between $150 million and $200 million. It's one of the biggest flops since The Lone Ranger.
As of the 2 week mark, this film has made $130 million worldwide ($94 mil dom / $36 mil int'l). The "break even" number (according to many media sources) is between $375 million - $400 million. Now, how is this estimate derived? Well, I will try my best to explain.
Production on the film was $144 million. Marketing/advertising/distribution was roughly $150 million (which brings it to around $300 million). A film doesn't get all the box office receipts - it is usually between 1/2 and 2/3 of a box office domestically. So, if a film makes say $200 million at the box office, the company actually takes in somewhere between $100 million and $135 million depending on the length of its run, etc. So, taking all that into account, to break even, this movie needs to make back the $290 million they have put into it (production+marketing+ads+distribution). Under the high end 2/3 box office ratio, that means it would need to $435 million worldwide box office to break even. Under the 1/2 box office ration, it would need to make $580 million to recoup its costs. The middle figure for the 1/2 to 2/3 is just north of $500 million Now, they will obviously get some money from merchandising and DVD sales. A legitimate estimate for that would be around $100 million. Which would put the necessary box office take to break even at $400 million:
Production+marketing+advertising+distribution = $290 million
To break even box office under the 1/2 - 2/3 rule = roughly $500 million
Minus the profits from merchandising/DVD sales = around $100 million
Worldwide box office to break even = around $400 million
So, right now it is at $130 million worldwide and poised to be in 8th place in this weekend's box office (according to BoxOfficeMojo). This thing may top out around $200 million worldwide - which would put it about $200 million short of what it needs just to break even. So, another monster loss for Sony and one of the biggest busts in recent memory.



My grammar errors are justified by the fact that I am a brazilian living in Brazil. I am also very stupid.