Actually, it needs to make closer to $400 million to just break even. It will lose Sony somewhere between $150 million and $200 million. It's one of the biggest flops since The Lone Ranger.
As of the 2 week mark, this film has made $130 million worldwide ($94 mil dom / $36 mil int'l). The "break even" number (according to many media sources) is between $375 million - $400 million. Now, how is this estimate derived? Well, I will try my best to explain.
Production on the film was $144 million. Marketing/advertising/distribution was roughly $150 million (which brings it to around $300 million). A film doesn't get all the box office receipts - it is usually between 1/2 and 2/3 of a box office domestically. So, if a film makes say $200 million at the box office, the company actually takes in somewhere between $100 million and $135 million depending on the length of its run, etc. So, taking all that into account, to break even, this movie needs to make back the $290 million they have put into it (production+marketing+ads+distribution). Under the high end 2/3 box office ratio, that means it would need to $435 million worldwide box office to break even. Under the 1/2 box office ration, it would need to make $580 million to recoup its costs. The middle figure for the 1/2 to 2/3 is just north of $500 million Now, they will obviously get some money from merchandising and DVD sales. A legitimate estimate for that would be around $100 million. Which would put the necessary box office take to break even at $400 million:
Production+marketing+advertising+distribution = $290 million
To break even box office under the 1/2 - 2/3 rule = roughly $500 million
Minus the profits from merchandising/DVD sales = around $100 million
Worldwide box office to break even = around $400 million
So, right now it is at $130 million worldwide and poised to be in 8th place in this weekend's box office (according to BoxOfficeMojo). This thing may top out around $200 million worldwide - which would put it about $200 million short of what it needs just to break even. So, another monster loss for Sony and one of the biggest busts in recent memory.