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Str8knox on 23 May 2008
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colonelstubbs said:
Louie said:

When we predict sales of a game we have to consider the size of the userbase the game is on.

All Metal Gear Solid games so far sold somewhere between 500k to 1 million units in Japan as far as I know. But the current situation is that all core games on the PS3 have seen weaker sales than their predecessors on PSX and PS2.

This causes retailers to be careful when they pre-order games. The Japanese PS3 install base is just not big enough to take any risks for them. If the game sells out during the first week they will order more copies, though.

The same goes for America: Pre-orders might be lower than some people thought but honestly, what did you guys expect? 1 million first week on a 5 million install base?

Metal Gear Solid was always a game that sold best in Europe, which is where we should expect it to sell best again this time.

Edit: I think we are talking about retail pre-Orders here, aren´t we? TheSource always talks about retail pre-orders  in his articles.  


 

It doesnt matter if the userbase is less than 4 million. it doesnt matter if people havent bought previous installments. Ths is know as THE game to have for the PS3, and a LOT of people will buy it. Its the first big PS3 exclusive that everybody wants, whether they have a wii or xbox. It will sell big amounts. Dont discount 5 million WW lifetime

Nicely said. I am taking a risk with the prediction of this game. It does have some things going against it:

1. released in the summer, which has boring game sales. (probably good forMGS4 as the only big game people will talk about on June 12, other than MGS4, will be WiiFit.)

2. The Ps2 versions and Ps1 version passed 5 mil but by a small amount on huge userbases.  (Correction: MGS2 passed 5 mil. MGS3 ddn't, and MGS4 will most likely beat that.)

 But, that really doesn't mean nothing though. Look at the Wii. It is getting ready to outsell most of its cube and n64 predecessors. (i wouldn't be even slightly surprised if it outsold an snes predecessors.)

 Yes, the pre-orders are below expectations. But, that happens when you raise your expectations to high. I mean people literally expected Brawl to beat Halo3 when their 1st weeks were compared. That could have been done, but didn't. Yet, its legs will ultimately surpass Halo 3's. (leaving Brawl to pass Halo 3.)

 But I have a feeling that many of you guys expectations will fail. MGS4 will be great but not GTA4 type great, yet people are predicting higher numbers for Ps3 hardware when MGS4 comes than when GTA4 came. (which is just plain silly.)