MikeRox said:
I think it's pretty certain Remain is going to win. I don't see an army of "Shy Brexiters" like we supposedly had Tories in the last election. With regards to geographical make up, it will be interesting, as some expect richer areas with less immigration to vote to leave, while I actually live in an area with high immigration and anecdotally, there seem to be more brexiters than remainers. However the biggest impact on this, even if the last poll of 55/45 in favour of remain is the turnout. As it's expected to be about 67%, it really would depend which voters were more determined to go out. Chuck in the SNP adamance that Scotland being dragged out against it's will, could spur some nationalists there to actually vote leave to try and increase the chance for Scottish independence. For the actual post that was quoted. 1. A smaller democracy will not be “more representative”. However a UK government not able to shield themselves by blaming their failures on the EU, would be much more accountable. As for "more representative" How can an MEP representing upwards of 1m people be more representative than a UK MP representing on average 72,400 in England, or less in Scotland, Wales and NI. That's before you chuck in different ideas and ambitions of another 27 nations. 2. Immigration is just going to happen. I pretty much agree with this initial statement. However, there is a difference between being able to pick your own criteria for who is elligible to move to a country, and having a blanket "anyone has the right" stance that the EU mandates. Though personally, immigration isn't a great concern, more the lack of investment in infrastructure to accomodate it. 3. “Straining” schools, waiting lists, and hospitals are your fault. We are implementing spending cuts, (however EU policy dictates Austerity too), our population grew 500,000 last year, 330,000 of that from immigration. It's not just about maintaining the existing services, such an increase requires whole new provisions. There's also the question of where does this go? As for point 2, we need investiment in infrastructure to accomodate it, however as we don't know annually what the numbers will be, how are we meant to plan for it in the first place? Next year all EU citizens might overnight upsticks and move to Spain. However I would also note, I saw a tweet saying "people voted for cuts, they got cuts, they are the reason you can't see a GP, not a Hungarian Migrant". This was the point when I realised most people just don't have a clue about any of this. The reason you can't see a GP easily in the UK, is because the 2004 Labour Government renegotiated the GP contracts. 4. The EU is a good shot at preserving peace. If the supposed EU army details are starting to emerge about is set in place, it seems to me more like an incendiary weapon more likely to cause conflict with Russia than maintain any peace. 5. Brexit use language that’s targeted at losers. Losers have feelings and opinions too. Telling them they are a loser and their life situation is their own fault and the best thing to do is to get a self help book smacks of narcissistic arrogance of "I'm alright, so you should be too". Maybe making a more convincing case for their lives are better as part of a greater European Community would swing them round better than calling them racist, xenophibic little Englanders and the like. 6. Countries come and go. Isn't this what many people on the leave camp are saying about the EU? It had it's time and place in a backdrop of the Cold War and post Second World War. 7. Brexit will hurt the economy. On the short term most likely. To be able to predict the economic impact of brexit in 20-30 years however is pure opinion and to accept there is no scope that actually the alternative could be better economically is naive, arrogant and outright lying. Point 7 sums up the remain campaign though. "This is the exact facts of what will happen, right down to the penny!" it's just simply not possible. Maybe if they'd spent more time making their own case, and less time telling people what they won't have with a brexit, they wouldn't have been anywhere near nailbitingly close going into the referendum. I was leaning towards remain at the start of the campaign. However I won't be threatened and bullied, and the more ridiculous the armageddon claims became, the more I started to wonder just who really would actually lose out the most in result of a Brexit, and I'm afraid the conclusions I drew were the politicians, global corporations and the financial institutions (who did quite a lot of bankrolling for the remain camp). I won't be too bothered either way at the outcome. As I wasn't expecting to ever get a vote on it anyway. And I can rest safe in the knowledge that if I don't get my preference, I'll be £4000 a year better off than if I had... or something like that XD It's not even like voting remain is a bad option. The division both campaigns have caused in this referendum is disgusting, and I'm not sure our country is ever going to be the same again. The scariest thing is just how little pretty much anyone in this country seems to understand about either side of the debate. Facebook Memes driving opinion is a very dangerous thing. Final comment I promise! I predict a 56:44 outcome in favour of Remain once it's declared. Though I hope it's closer. |
Thanks a lot for your insight, truly appreciated :)
