| tak13 said: Firstly, it won't be less than 80m... Have they stopped selling? Even if you believe that 3ds won't reach 70m, PS sales should cover the deficit for the aggregate sales surpassing 80m... Secondly, one thing is sure, you wouldn't be saying all that staff if 3ds was gba's successor and if it has never been a psp! If comparisons with market anomalies are valid and indicative for you, I don't care! You can accept how unfair they are though, eh?
For me is more like market normalization not death! However, I admit that I could be wrong ( I'm not dogmatic) ! What about you? You perconceive failure? Let's wait for 3ds successor and its perfomance to see which view is right! |
First point is a bit weird. Does it make a difference if the total install base is 75m or 85m? I'd understand if the number was close to 200m or 240m for example. But when we're talking about an install base that is 3x smaller than it was last gen then a couple million here or there doesn't mean anything of significance.
Secondly, you're once again missing the point about looking at the overall market. As an example, lets use the dedicated camera market. As taking pictures became more popular and cheaper we see camera sales grow between 2003 and 2010. Similar to the DS and PSP where there was a huge market for dedicated handhelds as they provided the best solution for gaming on the go, were cheap, and had mass market appeal. After 2010 we see that the digital camera shipments begin to decline sharply. But of course we all know that camera use has skyrocketed since then thanks to smartphones. With 1.5 billion smartpone camera phones sold last year it dwarfs the dedicated camera market which is now niche. The most popular cameras on the market today are built into smartphones. It's a similar situation with handheld gaming where dedicated handhelds are no longer the biggest segment for handheld gaming. That also goes to the more than 1 billion smartphone gamers worldwide who play games on the go on their smartphones. Of course smartphones aren't the only reason for the decline of dedicated handhelds but it is the top reasons.
At this point we've seen Sony publicly declare that there will not be another portable console from them, it's looking increasingly likely that no other major competitor will take their place and that Nintendo will have an entire dedicated market to themselves. And this market is now considerably smaller than it was before with many Western third party publishers already withdrawing support for dedicted handhelds. There is a reason why so many have left the world of handhelds, publishers and consumers alike.
In fact Nintendo haven't even confirmed anything about a new handheld just yet (assuming NX is home console and not portable/hybrid) and with 3DS sales declining fast it'll be a challenge for them to build up that userbase again on the next handheld device. Esp if third parties choose not to invest in that area. I would expect Nintendo to release a new handheld console, due to the popularity of them in Japan, but they may have a huge issue in regards to appealling to more than just a niche group of consumers outside of Japan.
Now, and discussing your final point here, we have no idea what Nintendo can do. They are always great at surprising everyone with new innovative products and so a new handheld could really work for them as you say. But right now I'm not overly optomistic that the handheld market will grow in a considerable way next gen due to the reasons noted above + other reasons that will take a while to explain. I don't really see many Western publishers supporting the device either unless it links in some way to their home console, and that could be the saving grace for Nintendo there.
I hope Nintendo are able to find a market with NX and other initiatives as they have really strong IP's and are able to make great games tailored to each system.
I'm not dogmatic or rash either, I'm simply saying where handhelds fit in right now. Who knows what could happen next gen, like I said, i'm not optimistic but that doesn't mean that i'm right. As you say, I can be wrong. But I also have the right to an opinion as well and have formed mine after considering the overall state of the market. So I'm not sure why you're so hung up on trying to say I'm wrong. I can be wrong. But I'm not sure how you can say I am (like you said earlier) whilst also saying you can be wrong. Weird.
Anyway, I could write more but have other things to do.
