Well, a 200 million dollar budget isn't insanity these days. Ever since Titanic, studios have been more willing to invest huuuuuuge sums for production, but I do think this one is a bit riskier despite the first's success. 20 years has been kind to Jurassic Park (because everyone wants to see a fun movie with realistic-ish dinosaurs in it) and Star Wars (because it's STAR WARS) but destruction porn doesn't have that same novelty as it once did.
On top of that, worldwide audiences might not respond as favorably if it has all the American flag-waving like the first, Will Smith isn't in it, and the way the first ended any sort of sequel could be looked at as a cash-grab.
This movie might succeed and become a blockbuster success, but it could flop hard, especially with Star Trek coming up soon after. This one's hard to for me to predict, so, yeah, it does seem a little crazy to spend 200 million on something if you aren't sure how well it'll do.
