Nintendo can definitely be disrupted.
I'm working on an editorial on how to do it actually, it should be up sometime in the next ~week or two.
The way I look at it...is this.
Gaming World Map:
Niche Market Everyone Market
<83' A
83'-95' B C
95'-06' D E
06'-? F
Atari's fortunes rose and fell trying to protect and grow 'A'. Nintendo was able to expand market 'A' by doing really well in Japan, and making the USA market bigger, and trying to put a stake in the Euro market. When games proved too complex, etc, Game Boy was introduced to move the industry to a larger audience, 'C'. With PS1 Sony recognized that group B and C were trying to convince others to game, but a level of realism or story telling was missing. PS1 was able to bring some of those people in for group D. Group E with PS2 was an expansion of group D by adding some 'realistic control' to the other realism. Group F wanted a unified easier control scheme though, and Nintendo saw that.
The thing is no one knows exactly where group 'B' wants were looking from group 'A', no one knew exactly where group 'C' was looking from group 'B', etc. Whenever a company that failed to please an audience as well as its rivals in the era nails it in the next battle, you see a monumental shift in fortune.
Based on that, the next opportunity will probably be in beating Nintendo to China & India as significant players when those markets grow to a size of say...Japan before exploding. Look how long it has taken Nintendo to begin to unseat Sony in Europe where Sony made videogames mainstream.
If Nintendo beats the competition to India and China by establishing itself well, it may never be kicked around to the extent it was in the past five to ten years again.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
