Last year it was at 153k with only The Witcher 3. This year it has UC4, Doom and Overwatch. Imo 185k is too low.
Guess we will see in about 5 hours (depend when Cream or Acqua release the numbers), that said, at first i was with you with PS4 at >200K, but then i've got a discussion ( which you probabily saw if you follow NPD GAF) and well... i just changed my opinion. I won't be shocked if PS4 will be in the 210-230k range, since this was my first prediction as well, but i just don't see this happening now.