1st. Yes. Even if only butterfly shaped shrapnel is in warhead - it will damaged during explosion/collisions. Also to have a butterfly shaped hole in target shrapnel should impact it with very tight angle range, which is impossible irl.
So even in case of 9m38m1 missile most holes must be of different kind of 'normal' holes, with a diversity because of impact angle/speeds/hundreds of factors.
2nd. No. I didn't saw any hole which can be clearly identified as butterfly shaped. Also have to tell you, that even square pieces could make butterfly holes in case if target structure is not simple.
So all I got from our talks is that the missile and warhead cannot be clearly identified by holes. So no info.
In fact even if missile identified it would mean nothing. I can say that 9m38m1 missiles are in Ukraine army too. Or you can say that even if older missiles used - Russia not using it itself but could take it from storage and give to Donetsk militia.
So empty talk in the end... (((
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