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Soundwave on 07 May 2016
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Kane1389 said:
Soundwave said:

Not exactly.

Most polls have him getting beaten by Clinton and even worse by Sanders in the general election. And Clinton has more primary votes than anyone (Trump included).

He's done well at beating a group of largely dull Republicans, but the general election is a very different ball game and that's why Republicans tried very hard to deny him the nomination, because most polling data shows he would lose and lose badly in a general election.

Polls? The entire political spectrum of the country as well as the almost all media said his campaign wouldnt last for 2 months, when he entered the race in june last year. As for polls, every politician he ever went up against tanked in polls after Trump attacked them, starting from Rand to Bush, Rubio and eventually even Cruz and Kasich. There was a recent poll which showed Trump above Hillary and he barely started on her, and he has way more ammunation on her than he had on any other presidental candidate.

As for votes, Hilary has the voters split between 2 people, her and Bernie. Trump has over 8  other candidates splitting the vote and he's still quite close to Clinton. But if overall quantity of votes is what you care, the ''dull''  Republicans have over 3 million more votes than democrats in this election

That's not neccessarily a positive for Trump though because what that shows is while he is successful at attracting a certain group of people, that also comes with a lot of people who are coming out to vote *against* him. High voter turn out is good for Democrats, always has been.

He can try to attack Hilary in the same way by huffing and puffing and calling names and all that but I don't think it will be as successful of a tactic against Clinton and it could back fire, he tried the same thing with Carly Fiorina by implying she was too ugly to be president and I think that was one of the rare times he back pedalled sensing that women were really pissed off by that.

The polls aren't always accurate, but RCP (real clear politics) is a fairly decent indicator, for example Obama only had double digit leads over Romney like twice the entire cycle. Clinton already has hit 13+ up on Trump three times.

This is why IMO the Republican establishment does not want him as the candidate because they fear he'll getted routed in the general election, and demographics are not neccessarily great for him, he'll probably lose big among women (who were 54% of the vote bloc last cycle) and blacks and latinos (who are about 1/3 of the population now).