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ZhugeEX on 01 May 2016
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RolStoppable said:
ZhugeEX said:

Thanks for the post Rol. I've corrected the date to March 2017, good spot!

The Clash of Clans comparison, as you say, is just a small fact. It's not really there to say that Nintendo could earn that much from one game but instead to point out how huge mobile gaming is today. I could very much do the same by providing total revenue numbers for dedicated handheld and mobile gaming and the gap would be even bigger. I wouldn't read too much into that to be honest. 

Yes, no denying that Nintendo will take a more unified development approach with their next generation of systems. Creating one software ecosystem in order to streamline development etc... I think a new handheld would still do well in Japan but the market for a dedicated handheld outside of Japan is very niche these days and whilst Nintendo could of course launch one here, I wouldn't expect it to do as well as the 3DS has done outside Japan. 

The Wii was a unique case as the games were created specifically to take advantage of the system features. For example the GameCube and Nintendo 64 too had great first party line ups but there wasn't anything else that was unique about the consoles to push sales above their competitors, even when they had the price advantage. I agree that Nintendo IP do sell hardware but that on its own won't be enough this time in order for Nintendo to see success. 

I see your points on 3DS and Wii and don't disagree there at all. But that doesn't disagree with my point either. I'm not saying that the situation is hopeless for Nintendo, I'm saying it's a difficult situation for them where having another Wii U would not work in their favour one bit. 

The good thing as you say is that Nintendo are clearly working hard on ensuring the launch has enough software (they've said as much) and that the hardware's USP's are relevant to the market today. As to how easy it is for Nintendo to be successful, it's hard to say because so far they haven't shown anything that can make me say they'll do well or that they'll do bad. My point was more along the lines that if they do badly then they've now got the Wii U and 3DS discontinued and a poor selling console (NX) unable to generate growth or high revenues etc... That, coupled with the fact that new revenue streams haven't taken off just yet could just mean that Nintendo don't look to launch another console.

In regards to smartphone business I can see how that may drive new users to console but I wouldn't expect it to have a huge impact to be honest. 

Let's talk a bit more about a possible NX failure, more specifically how bad it could be. Sony isn't doing great in Japan, so an NX home console and handheld should still be able to sell 15m+ units combined over a span of five years, unless the market for dedicated gaming seriously collapses in the near future. America is leading when it comes to multiconsole-ownership, so another 15m+ units aren't too farfetched (split between home console and handheld sales will obviously be different than in Japan). Europe and Others can add 10m+, so we'll get a total of 40m, about half as much as the Wii and 3DS sold.

That is a rather low installed base, but it's going to have access to a high density of Nintendo software, assuming that Nintendo gets the job done to have most of their games available on both devices. This steadier flow of software should lead to a higher retention rate of customers who actively use their NX. Regular DLC packs for online multiplayer games should also help to maintain a high number of active users which in turn will buy new software.

The above doesn't sound that terrible (by that I mean the chances that Nintendo might not make another console). If Nintendo can avoid to sell hardware at a loss, all the better. At an installed base of 30m it's already feasible to have multiple games that sell 10m+ copies. Well, the point here is that the installed base itself wouldn't pose a problem that has a significant impact on potential software sales, as opposed to the Wii U which forces a low ceiling on Nintendo IPs that could otherwise be much more popular.

Literally everything would have to go wrong for Nintendo to make NX their last dedicated video game hardware. I think it's more likely that NX sells 150m+ units.

 

Well we still don't know if NX is two devices (or more) and when they are coming out. It could be that they release multiple form factors together or it could be that we don't get another handheld/home console to 2018 etc...

So to say that its more than likely that the NX can sell 150 million is a bit of a jump. 

Note that my original article was providing a "What if NX did worse than Wii U" example, not a "What if NX did better than Wii U example". Therefore any doom and gloom talk in that article was referring to the former situation. 

If the NX does indeed to better than the Wii U then there is nothing saying that Nintendo will be in trouble and that gives them the opportunity to stablise their console business whilst growing out new segments in order to grow revenue and profits to "Nintendo like levels"