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You think the PS4 will sell 22-23 million this year and roughly the same next year? I agree with the rather poor outlook of the Wii U and 3DS (3DS is neck and neck with the Xone for the first quarter this year, which is a disaster for a Nintendo handheld), but I think you're overestimating the PS4 here, to be honest. Even the PS2 only had peak years of around 25 million or so and faced easier competition and a much kinder, more slow-paced market and circumstances.