Since this is my first post on VGChartz, I'm going to respond to each and every prediction you made.
Nintendo of America's website has said that Zelda U will be released for both Wii U and Nintendo NX in March 2017. That virtually guarantees that it's not only coming to NX next year, but that it is a launch title. FWIW, this already points to a more successful year one on the market than the Wii U had.
Mario Kart 9 is a good prediction. If it comes out next year, I think that it would almost certainly be a holiday release. Every time someone mentions Mario Kart on NX, I'm always reminded of that rumored Diddy Kong Racing reboot thing.
I think a 3D Super Mario is about the most obvious prediction in the world when it comes to NX launch window titles. I'm very excited to see where Nintendo decides to take the series, since it's now been three years since our last 3D Mario, and even longer since the "true" 3D Mario that everyone is always clamoring for.
Regarding "Paper Mario", I think that your point about Nintendo trying to salvage Wii U's last holiday is valid. I seriously doubt this will be an NX game. If you looked up the definition of "filler" in the dictionary, you'd find the cover art for Paper Mario: Color Splash. NX won't need filler in year one if the rumored third party partnerships come to fruition.
I believe that Splatoon 2 is almost certainly going to be in our homes by the end of 2018, but I'm not sure if a year one release for NX is likely. Splatoon was an undeniably huge success, but Nintendo didn't know how it would perform until it was out and selling millions. I think it's more likely we get an enhanced port of Splatoon in 2017 and then maybe a sequel in 2018.
I don't think the timing is right for Mario Party 11. I think it's possible that we see it by the end of the year, but Nintendo might feel more of a need to get this game out when it's filler time midway through year 2.
Miyamoto has said that Pikmin 4 is deep into development. I imagine that the development process was originally for Wii U, but since we still haven't heard anything about this game, it seems unlikely that it's Nintendo's great big sendoff title for the Wii U. I think it will be one of three of Nintendo's big NX launch titles (along with Zelda and probably Mario).
A New Super Mario Bros. is another likelihood (read: certainty) at some point, although I think the Big N would want to avoid oversaturating the market with Mario games like they did with Wii U early on. People were sick of it by 2014. NSMB would certainly pull in a lot of money early on, though, so who knows?
Hyrule Warriors 2? Huh, I hadn't thought about this one. Hyrule Warriors pushed the limits of the Wii U, so I'd definitely like to see it on some more powerful hardware. I could see this being an early fall title, for better or for worse.
I would love Luigi's Mansion 3 to be a fall title for the NX. All aboard the hype train! Unfortunately, I think your 15% chance prediction is probably spot on.
Metroid has a better shot than I think most people are giving it. I could easily see this game launching as Nintendo's one big summer game. Retro Studios has been working on SOMETHING since early 2014, and we have absolutely no idea what it is. Unless it actually ends up being Diddy Kong Racing. Still, I'd rather have Metroid.
So, since you gave us yours, here's what MY predicted NX Nintendo lineup for year 1 would include:
Launch
Pikmin 4
Zelda U
Super Smash Bros. 4 Definitive Edition (Wii U + 3DS port)
Launch Window
3D Mario
Summer
Metroid
Fall/Holiday
Luigi's Mansion 3 (I'm banking on that rumor being true!)
Splatoon (Wii U port)
Mario Kart 9
Early 2018
Pokemon game a la Pokemon Colosseum/Pokemon Stadium
Looks pretty good to me!
I'd rather be playing Metroid Prime
